Andrew Jubelt

If you’re looking for information about where to invest in commercial real estate, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) has published its "Emerging Trends in Real Estate" report for over 35 years. In its recently released forecast, the following trends are among those expected to emerge:

Real Estate’s Love/Hate Relationship with Technology Intensifies

Real estate will continue to have a love/hate relationship with technology. Fear of technical disruption is easing, though, which is a good thing, considering that no form of real estate is exempt from the expansion of technology.

Survey respondents see technology opening new business paths, even when traditional industries may be lagging. It’s pushing change in space use, locations, and demand levels. Fear of technology is subsiding somewhat.

Office demand, which was once driven by financial firms, is expected to be driven by technology and media industries. Tech companies once impacted suburban communities, but now the focus is more urban.

Some respondents think we don’t yet know what the result of current changes will be. The sharing economy, in which groups such as millennials are comfortable sharing rather than owning, is already disrupting taxi and hotel industries and may also affect office properties. Excess space could be offered to other companies, by either the landlord or the tenant.

A Darwinian Market Keeps the Squeeze on Companies

Unrelenting competition makes the need for a clear "brand identity" increasingly important. Efficiency and effectiveness will not only be what investors expect -- they’ll also filter down to service providers.

Institutional investment is expected to be influenced by a desire for more control on the part of the largest investors. Capital sources will expect more services for less money.

The ongoing trend toward outsourcing could be somewhat replaced by bringing real estate talent in-house, reducing costs and improving accountability. Consolidation could increase if this trend grows.

Capital raising, already difficult for mid-tier managers, has become more difficult in Europe with the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD). These regulations increase reporting and compliance requirements. Some firms may not be able to afford these conditions, so the number of private equity and hedge fund firms seeking capital in Europe may decline. The field may become overpopulated as more players looked toward Europe for cash, followed by an inevitable winnowing.

Housing Steps off the Roller Coaster

The real estate bubble and the ensuing collapse seem to be put in the past. Residential real estate is expected to return to the classic principles of supply and demand. Confidence in residential real estate should increase -- a positive trend for the entire economy.

This hopeful outlook is due to the fact that the number of U.S. households has grown steadily, even as the housing market struggled. Demand for rental housing rose, while single-family-home construction fell markedly. Over several years, this translates into a huge shortfall in new for-sale units. The shortfall is now 9 million homes, which has enabled the "months of supply" figure to stay around five months since late 2012. Existing-home sales averaged about 2.1 million during the same period. This point of balance for single-family residential has stayed steady.

Disposable income growth has lagged for households, and prices aren’t re-inflating to bubble levels. Moderate price increases are anticipated, with only minor ups and downs in existing-home sales.

It’s a healthy, boring market that’s anticipated -- a welcome relief from the huge swings in housing over the past decade.

Andrew Jubelt, a principal at Avant Capital Partners, can advise you on commercial real estate investing and provide you with the funding you need. Contact him at ajubelt@avant-capital.com, or call 212-231-9779